Vikings 20, Bears 17 -- Courtney Cronin, The Bears are 14-2 in their past 16 home games against the Vikings dating back to the 2001 season. TB-NO | ATL-HOU | BUF-TEN Matchup rating: 42.0 | Spread: PHI -14.5 (43.5), What to watch for: The Eagles are paper-thin at cornerback after injuries to Ronald Darby and Avonte Maddox. See Week 5 rankings. The model also enters Week 5 of the 2021 season on an incredible 124-82 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates . Read more. Stat to know: Brady's only three-game losing streak in his career came from Weeks 4 to 8 in 2002, his second season as a starter. ESPN Fantasy's Kyle Soppe and ESPN Chalk's Mackenzie Kraemer hand out helpful nuggets as well. Bengals 13, Bills 9 -- Mike Rodak, The Bengals have a tough matchup against one of the league's best defenses (Buffalo is 10th overall), but it looks like their offense finally has begun to click in the past two weeks. Through the first four games, the Giants have played three starting offensive line combinations up front. This one could be decided by which quarterback is upright at the end of the afternoon. Read more. They'll have to do it Sunday with a lot of attention on the running game, whether Mariota or Matt Cassel is under center. Read more. They won't do anything to change that with a big win over the Giants. See Week 5 rankings. Is Jalen Hurts' breakout legit? Lions (1-3) at Patriots (1-3) 1 p.m. XFL odds, picks, predictions for XFL playoffs: Sea Dragons, Roughnecks The Bengals as a whole have an NFL-worst 2.8 yards per rush and NFL-low 1.5 yards before first contact. Gutierrez's pick: Bears 20, Raiders 16 That's not the attitude a winless team needs. ET | Fox Matchup rating: 65.6 | Spread: NO -3 (46.5), What to watch for: Is this the week we see the training wheels come off for Teddy Bridgewater? 198 days ago NFL Week 4 of the 2022-23 NFL season has come to a close. Top Week 5 NFL predictions One of the model's strongest Week 5 NFL picks is that the Titans (-2.5) cover against the Commanders in almost 60% of simulations. But to this point, Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph hasn't been able to take advantage of the vertical game, averaging just 3.3 air yards per completion, the lowest for any quarterback with 50 completions since 2006. . That's tied for the most outright wins without a loss in any matchup in NFL history, according to Elias Sports Bureau research. They'll do just enough to keep things that way. The Eagles' pass defense is vulnerable, but Luke Falk -- a dink-and-dunk passer -- doesn't have enough arm to exploit the matchup. The 61-0 streak is over: Why the Ravens are no longer the NFL's best closers, Monday 8:15 p.m. Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information research provides a stat to know for each game, and the Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection.